[Repost] Analysis: FIFA 18 OTW Base Cards

  • Ones To Watch (OTW) cards from FIFA 18 came out on Friday, September 29th and remained in packs until Monday, October 9th
  • Base cards for chosen OTW players were removed from packs during this period
  • The resulting cut in supply caused for dramatic price increases

FIFA 18 OTW Base Cards

Analysis (Xbox)

  • Bruma yielded the best ROI (return on investment) at 403.8%
  • Sigurdsson yielded the worst ROI at 1.8%
  • Tolisso had the most impressive rise for a mid-tier priced player, jumping from 13,500 coins to 30,269 coins, an increase of 124.2%
  • 23/23 players rose in price during the 10 day period
  • 18/23 players rose by 50%+ during the 10 day period
  • 8/23 players rose by 100%+ during the 10 day period
  • 4/23 players rose by 200%+ during the 10 day period
  • Many of these players could be bought for cheaper than their prices on September 29th if you purchased them during the web app period before the full release
  • Cheaper players tend to have a better ROI than expensive players




  • All fine, but the question is… how can we invest on the first day of the game? I mean, where can we get coins from to invest??

    • I’ll write a more detailed post about this later, but basically three things:

      1. Utilize the catalogue to unlock coin boosts for completed matches and sell unneeded items.
      2. Trade pacey attackers and balanced mids that will be sought after as people build their starter squads.
      3. Find a broad ranging filter to snipe players necessary for Advanced SBCs (see this article from last year).

      In general, many of the same methods from FIFA 18 will apply to FIFA 19. I will release more articles about them as we draw nearer to the release. If you can’t wait, check out the September archives from last year.

  • So what players from this years OTWs do you think would be good investments? From the cheaper ones?

  • Hi chief i have 300 k what should i invest

  • If i pack a lemar otw and he is worth 68k right now, should i sell?

  • TOTW wesley, de paul, fraser, cech, lucas leiva and a OTW Mariano. Keep? Sell? If so when?

    • If you are willing to hold until the next POTM (October 12th), then I’d hang on to Fraser and Cech. 85 Leiva is worth a hold as well because of his high rating and thus usability in SBCs. The others likely won’t rise any time soon.

  • Hello chief. Bought sommer and xhakha totw cards. After reading your side, i found out that sommer potm will be releasing,which will provide a good opportunity to sell both of those totw cards. When is the sommer potm sbc release timing. And i should be selling those cards within 1-2 hrs from the release timing right?

    • Not the Sommer POTM, but the Bundesliga POTM. I’m guessing it will release sometime over October 12th-14th. Pending on price, I might encourage ‘selling in the hype’ for that. In all likelihood, Duda will get the honor (see the Bundesliga POTM page for other potential contenders).

  • How long should I hold Lucas, Keita and Malcom?

    • Sell Keita and Malcom October 6th or 7th. Sell Lucas when you are happy with the profit, probably in a week or so.

  • The prices seem to be decreasing for Sokratis and Malcom. Do you think they are gonna decrease further or increase again?